Just busted out 20 or 21st in the Venetian Deep Stack 550 NL Hold'em tourney from Friday night (July 2). Essentially, this was the tourney I came to play after thinking and talking about doing some live deep stack tourney's over the past little while. It started Friday at noon and 40 minutes carried us through 2AM where 34 players remained in a field of 470. I made it that far and almost to the first break of Day 2.

On reflection, I learned so many things in this tournament about myself, poker and tournament play navigation. I'll talk about the story of how I busted out, but now after seeing everything, I cannot rationalize/justify my play at that point in the tournament. The key is that once you're in the money and NOT in survival mode, you have the option of moving up the ladder to cash higher. Not being a large stack is both good and bad.

Tournament poker is interesting. Watching AA's hold up or not vs. the most interesting of hands was quite fun. I think I will want to re-read parts of Harrington's tourney books for reference and guidance. At the end of the day, I had the skill and the brains to play smart poker, but my situational awareness did not come through for me as I made a poor decision on my part.

We're playing 8 handed in our table (feature table on the platform at the Venetian floor) and one of the big stacks raises pre-flop. Ante's are 2K, blinds are 6K/12K at this point, level 20 in this tournament. You can read more here about the schedule and format on the Venetian site. I think I'm going to go back in November to play again.

Back to my lesson of the week. I had $140K chips which was around half the average, but still a relatively safe ~11-12X the BB. I had navigated through a few hands earlier with timely steals and hitting top pair while avoiding another player's flush and straight draw. My brain was probably still thinking "survival mode" more so that I needed to. UTG opens for $37K and I sit there evaluating my hand 4th to act. I held 33 and after thinking my chances were better than 50/50 that he was holding Ax, I decided to push all-in and he essentially snap called.

UTG player showed some solid hands earlier, but for whatever reason, I discounted his raise, this was my first big mistake. The second mistake was forgetting to evaluate where I was. Sitting around 20th, the change in payout 15th and 18th spot and really I still had a good shot to make it there. The range of hands I shoud've credited him would include any pocket pair, Ax and KQo/KJo. While I was ahead, surely my all-in would not dent his stack very much at that point, although if he were to double me up, I would essentially "back in play." Those were my thoughts, the latter.

Perhaps this is all retrospective poker now, but I feel disappointed in my exit. What I didn't properly consider in my head (in my thought process) was the fact that he would be pot committed to call my any move. Had I consciously thought this, I think I would feel better today. That process I guess is the learning part to tourney poker. I read about this late stage poker tournament awareness and trying to maximize your opportunity to win some big money. First prize was $52K, I think 9th or even 10th was three times what my pay-out turned out to be.

Anyways, what do you think? Am I only saying this because I found out he had KK? Or perhaps if I credited him to any pair, I would've noted that I was very behind. So the range of hands I would be pushing against were better hands and coin-flips. Sounds harsh now. I guess the investment of time kind of hurt too. But anyways, my trip has been successful, but this tourney lesson, I won't get to act on it for a while.

That's all I have for now. Playing another tourney at 7:30PM. Probably chill by the pool tomorrow and then head home.

- Cole Hamels... dear oh dear... could've hit a monster 6 game parlay if the Phillies won on Saturday. Five for six sucks!
- Asia is a very interesting place, I can see how small and big entrepreneurs have a chance to do great things in this neck of the woods
- My friend DJ Mark Skyline has killer mixes; I'm listening to SkyClub Mix 31
- Omarion right now -- I called triple A, they said they on the way; time's tickin' fast, gotta see you today...
- Wi-Fi at HKG airport SUCKS; either that or there are WAY TOO MANY devices on the network, it's crawling slower than dial-up speeds
- I hope GER wins, I have money on them, with an open mind, the FIFA world cup was not too hard to handicap
- In case your wondering I took the ARG over (2.5 goals). I know they are defensive and all, but Mexico can push the pace the game will open up.
- Can't wait to get home and throw a frisbee and run around after work on Monday. Gym running is so lame...
- Quite a few friends did the Ride to Conquer Cancer. Very proud of all of them. Wasn't able to contribute to everyone's fund raising efforts, but no doubt the cause benefited from some of my generosity.
- Total co-incidence, I made a loan in Kyrgyzstan a few months ago via my Kiva account. Now the country's all over the news, for not the best of reasons, but anyways... more on the loan here[click here]

*yay* boarding time soon.

I was going to write my own funky KPO story, but here's a nice perspective from CNNGo - KPO is almost a Cinderella story -- fuddy-duddy post office by day, hip and funky watering hole by night. People zip in and out to buy stamps and pay bills, morning and afternoon, and are drawn next door by the smell of beer and suprisingly good eats..

Imagine Granville, Hamilton and Robson all intersecting in Vancouver. Similar to a trendy hangout like the Republic or other DHM fare, KPO sits at the intersection of Singapore's Killiney, Penang and Orchard roads. We enjoyed some great food and drinks as we celebrated one of my friend's birthdays (as well as one of her friend's too). We proceeded afterwards towards night club called Silk that just opened. It was "ok-lah" but really nothing to write home about. After some late night chinese eats, we headed back to the hotel and called it a night.

Next day we went to a couple of interesting places worth talking about. East Ocean Seafood Restaurant at Shaw Center. Great dim-sum for those who need it. Then after hanging out around the shopping district we made our way to the new Sands casino and hotel -- Marina Bay Sands. Blackjack and slots went great for my friend and only so-so for me. It's not quite Vegas, but for Asian people looking for the gambling rush, it's ok, I guess. No poker! Damn!

With his new found pocket wealth from MBS, my buddy treated his friend and myself to dinner. We picked a nice Italian restaurant at her suggestion to indulge. Bonta Italian Restaurant & Bar. We split a wild boar papparadelle dish to start and then each had Australian lamb, sea bass and steak respectively. Great food and the server made a great wine suggestion a cab from tuscany. Tenuta di Nozzole Il Pareto Toscana IGT 2003.

To end the evening, we went to Dempsey Hill. This area used to be known as the British army barracks and the old national service enlistment centre. Today it's populated with trendy shops, bars and dining spots. Think Queen Elizabeth park, however nicely accented with dining locations and classy water holes.

Last but not least, we had a nice morning dim sum hit before heading out today. Bao Today (Bao Zhing Tian) at Market Square near my hotel. Simple, relatively cheap and great quality. Something different that I ate a few times this week was this steamed bun with some salted egg yolk puree inside. Pretty tasty!

That's all!

With less than 24 hours to go to the first game kick-off here are my final notes based on some research and decision making. Seems like there are some very interesting odds scenarios that we can exploit based on the order of finish.

Lastly, I will note who am I cheering for. Also, I'm curious about how good this Lionel Messi guy really is. I was following some online chatter about top five worldwide athletes recently and saw his name come up a few times. Interesting. What does he got?

I also read that this might be the "first scientific" World Cup. With athlete programs developed in multiple fitness/training regiments designed to peak over these next two weeks. One CNNSI columnists notes -- "All the teams at the World Cup will be studying computer-generated data and it could just be that clever use of data decides certain games," said Simon Kuper, whose book Soccernomics has made coaches rethink strategy just as Michael Lewis's 2003 best-seller Moneyball did for baseball.

First round picks:

Group A
Win A MEX +300
1.FRA/2.MEX +350
1.MEX/2.URA +1200

Group B
Qual B Nigeria +100
1.ARG/2.SK +500

Group C
UK+USA -143 or 1.UK/2.USA +135
SLV +185

Group D
SER to Win +300
1.GER/2.SER +275

Group E
1.NDR/2.CAM +260
1.NDR/2.DEN +260

Group F
Par to win +275
1.ITA/2.PAR +125

Group G
1.BRA/2.POR +160

Group H
1.SPA/2.CHI +110

Overall, I'm cheering for Serbia, Argentina and England.

First round World Cup picks and pans. If you're a fan of soccer and have some input or an opinion, let me know. Can't wait till everything starts. So, my tentative group play action desk looks like this, pending additional review and comment from my soccer friends:

France wins Group A, -105
Argentina wins Group B, -222
Netherlands wins Group E, -167
Italy Wins Group F, -222
Brazil wins Group G, -189

South Korea to Qual Group B, +225
Slovenia to Qual Group C, 185
Serbia to Qual Group D, -120
Denmark to Qual Group E, -105

Some upset bets I'm considering.

Serbia Win Group D, +300
Honduras to Qual Group H, +500

One of my buddies yesterday asked me an interesting question, for which I didn't have a good answer. It was a sports related question and I was somewhat handicapped (yes, rare, I know) by what he was asking. We were talking about my favourite baseball team, the Philadelphia Phillies. He asked me if there were 30 game winning pitchers out there these days in the MLB. I figured not, only because I remember seeing headlines and stars given to those with 20 game winning seasons which already seemed rare enough. But we broke it down and figured that a guy like Roy Halladay would potentially have a chance (knock on wood, no jinx'n).

While it's certainly early in the season, Halladay has had over 30 starts in his last four seasons. He has great run support on his team and while the Phillies have had some inconsistency in the closer category, run support would help. It does have me wondering if such a feat would be possible. 30 wins... that's crazy! In the meanwhile, Phillies run support is making even Cole Hamels lackluster start look half decent. So anyways, just wanted to throw that thought out there on the internet. It'd be so cool if a pitcher can pitch 25 wins a season, nevermind 30 which would be stellar.

I wasn't that far off, but there definitely are some interesting first round match-ups.

Western Conference
SJS - COL => This is an intriguing battle only because it's two teams at opposing ends of the expectations spectrum. The Sharks enter the playoffs with the history of underachieving and baggage over their heads. Yes, the Avs are probably too tired, too young and too new, but perhaps that's what makes them the most dangerous. I expect the Avs to put up a good fight, but ultimately, the Sharks should be able to figure the first round out. They will be pushed to the limit, I think. Sharks in 7.

CHI - NAS => I think the lack of star power on the Nashville team will catch-up with them. Chicago can play a simple game similar to the Preds and still win. Rinne cannot make up for the Preds weak special teams. Chicago in 5.

VAN - LOS => There are many reasons to be afraid of the LA Kings, but I don't think this misfit bunch can put together four wins versus the Canucks. With some extra time to rest their defense, the Canucks have lots to prove and should handle the Kings in 5 games.

PHO - DET => To me, this is the most interesting match-up. Phoenix is the paper favourite but spiritual underdog? The paper statistic that I think will decide the series is whether or not Phoenix' powerplay can perform in the clutch. Phoenix reminds me of the year Florida (Jovo, Mellanby and crew) went deep and won with Vanbiesbrouck. Not sure they can take it as far as cup finals, but the team is playing well, and they have found ways to win all season with Bryzgalov backstopping them. That alone might be enough to take out the Red Wings.

There will be an upset, but really who is the favourite? In this case, I'm going to say SJS, CHI, VAN, PHO make it. Stay tuned for Round 1 recap and Round 2 predictions.

Eastern Conference
WAS - MON => I would be ready to call an upset here if Halak played better going into the close of the season. Montreal is the kind of team that WAS doesn't want to play first round. They are the kind that "you really don't know what you could face". That said, there's no point in imagining too many upsets right now. AO will enforce his will and they should win in 6, maybe even 5.

NJD - PHI => New Jersey's playing some smooth hockey right now. Boucher is not the answer. As much fun as it was to slip into the playoffs in a shootout effort, if there is a series that will be a sweep, this is probably the one. Devils in four.

BUF - BOS => On the back of Vezina hopeful Miller, I think the Sabres will make it to the finals. #2 Penalty Kill needs to match up with some better PP activity. Actually Boston is structured in a similar fashion, great PK, so-so PP.

PIT - OTT => If Kovalev was healthy... I will stop there. How can you go against the experienced team and a goalie who seems to have a flair for the playoff run. But there's a gut feel here. Some kind of "they can pull it off" type feel. Malkin's back, so the Pittsburgh two headed monster should live on. or not? My gut... It beckons for Spezza to be a true star. Poor guy.

Caps in 5, Devils in 6, Buffalo in 5, Ottawa in 7?

Overall. Mostly favourites doing their thing with some gut upsets thrown in between. Nothing ever happens "as predicted."

Highest scoring fantasy selections should be Pittsburgh, Vancouver, Detroit, Washington stars. Funny because only 2 of those four teams I'm thinking will advance.

Funny thing happened tonight. After ultimate, I checked my phone and I had like 5 text messages from various friends asking me the same question. "How come AV still has Luongo in net?" -- That's a valid question I guess, but I think I know a good answer for it. After the first period AV pretty much had to make a decision, do I yank him or let him sort it out and play Raycroft tomorrow night. There's no sense in pushing Louie if he still needs to "work it out."

Sadly, we ran into a hungry deep team tonight with a reasonably hot goalie and we were rushed out of the game after one period. While some might question LA's defensive depth, you have to give them props for the forward line-up they have worked out this season. They are easily 9 deep now that they are healthy. 9 deep versus our current defensive group. Didn't help either. Post lock-out Justin Williams was a stud. He has game, and really he's just a helper on the team. What a great pick-up for them. Kopitar, Handzus, Williams, Brown, Frolov, Modin and Smyth, Stoll and Halpern. That's pretty good.

Back to the question, what's wrong with the Canucks? With Louie struggling, how do you get the defense to simplify their game and keep it close? It's pretty tough right now. Ehroff is the only stud on the ice right now and he's not exactly known for his defensive shutdown capabilities. Salo is slumping. He has 2 points and is -4 in his past 10 games. Bieksa, he's not the same since injury, 2 pts and -5 in the last ten. Edler has 8 pts and is but is even on the +/- so I guess that's ok. Rome and Alberts just filling in. O'brien's antics are not helping either. Mitchell makes a huge difference in the line-up too in terms of roles and responsibilities.

I bring to question an important point. Is having your captain in net an issue? With Mitchell out, who's the defensive bench leader? We all hope they can work things out, but right now, injuries are not helping. It's not an excuse, but we're not very deep once we go down a few men. Samuelsson and Sedin are decent +/- guys. It's important to have them around.

I want to pull out the example of the Sabres team. They have injuries to Vanuk and Connolly right now. Offensive forces. But somehow they have a guy like Tyler Ennis 5'9" kiddo come up and contribute. I hope Jordan Schroeder can be like that. We're still all dreaming of Cody Hodgson too. I hope that dream stays alive, but we could use some help now.

So, I point to depth, that's what is killing us right now. Lack of depth and once a few key injuries have sunk in (plus an idiot self imposed scratch by O'brien) we're unable to cover for a slumping goaltender. Miller didn't win tonight either, but he's going to bounceback because he's displayed that all season. How and when Luongo can do so is going to be our lifeline in the play-offs. One could argue right now, all three division leaders are ripe for the picking in terms of upsets as their goaltending is suspect. Rinne, Howard, Quick/Bernier can all get hot. It's not going to be easy.

The depth thing, it's not an excuse. But at the end of the day, your B- players with their C- game are not going to beat a B+ team playing their A game. I hope that doesn't happen again tomorrow night.

Won a brand new iPod Nano 8GB at a draw this past week. Will part with it if you make me a reasonable offer. See online it's going for 124 USD.
I have four tickets to Sunday's Minny game. Undecided on going, but if you're interested, let me know. Section 320, Row 11.

Playoff rankings and thoughts below:

Western Top 8 - my estimates for final standings
SJS 111
CHI 106
VAN 103
PHX 108
NAS 100 (more wins)
DET 100
LOS 96
COL 95
*CGY 92 (out)

Seems like everyone figures DET can be the lone upset potential against the top seeds. I'm not so sure. If LOS can find earlier form and Quick stands tall, Chicago's goal-tending woes may cost them an early exit. Detroit still plays Edmonton and Columbus 4 times, so who knows what will happen. PHX vs. NAS presents an interesting situation. Both teams would have to grind it out and see what happens.

Eastern Top 8
WAS 117
PIT 103
BUF 101
NJD 101
OTT 94
PHI 87
MON 87
NYR 86 (Needs to win 5 of 7, but I think they can do it)
*BOS 86 (tough sked includes 2x WAS, 2x BUF, NJD)
*ATL 84 (tough sked includes 2x WAS, 2x PIT, NJD)

Carolina plays a huge spoiler role here. They've cooled off some, but in March they are 7-5-2. Boston can secure their way into the 8th spot by winning, but their schedule is tough. Same with Atlanta, I really don't see it happening.

West = Canucks vs. Sharks.
East = Washington vs. Sabres
Cup = Canucks vs. Sabres. It's the year of Luongo vs. Miller!
Miller wants the rematch, but the Kesler scores two GWG's on him. hahaha... how's that for US drama!